The end of the year is known for releasing "best of" / "worst of" lists, forecasts, & trends that will "shape" the next year. While I heart lists, it's the trends that I found real dumb. And no, I am not alone in this. Predictions usually go from plain ridiculous to rather obvious and to those that are there for shock value - "blogging is dead", "podcasting is dead" that no one but Armano really takes seriously. Speaking of Armano, what's up with those copyrighted little cartoons?? ... um, anyway. So, this year, stuff that caught my eye in "ridiculous" category, by self-proclaimed futurist Marian Salzman, are: "technology and media advances will help people to create a self-curated, media-driven Third Place to escape the pressures of home and work" (um, that's REALLY new) & my fav "global leaders, individuals, industries, communities, and governments (sure you haven't miss anyone here??) will join together to begin a "reboot" of global systems, allowing them to operate in a more robust and sustainable way". Besides the fact that meaning of this sentence eludes me, it is so general that it can't be proven wrong. That's the problem with trends - they really don't mean anything: they explain nothing and they predict nothing. So they are pretty useless when applied on the year past (um, what where the trends of 2008? did they "come true"? does anyone care?), and also when used as predictions. I don't think anyone with their straight mind will base their decision-making on the those 2 "predictions" above. The trends also fail the criterion of falsification = a statement can't be proven wrong. and what can't be proven wrong, is not right either - just ask Carl Popper. So they are basically just someone's [unfounded] observations ... the same way Malcom Gladwell is an "expert" on influentials. And (while I am at it), not only trends have no explanatory/predictive power, they also fail to work as "scenarios" because they are disconnected from any context / interaction with other unfolding events. Ok, now to "plain obvious" predictions category, courtesy of IPG Emerging Media Labs: favorites include "the semantic web will create more sophisticated, intuitive, refined ways to filter information and services, based on users' personal preferences. Early attempts include StumbleUpon and Twine" (and yes, happy new 2004) & "now, it's about engaging customers in conversation and managing relationships online" (um, ok) & "Zen Tech Warrior is the consumer who wants to be digitally connected on their own terms" (awesome, the same sentence every year for many years now [minus the "zen tech warrior" title]). There are also some other forecasting exercises, but at least the guys from ReadWriteWeb make it a collaborative effort AND admit that they usually get SOME of their predictions right ... takes the pressure off :) At the end, I really liked the idea of replacing predictions with things to look forward in 2009. Much more inspiring & also prob way more likely to happen.
